Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-College Football Playoff predictions: Projecting who would make 12-team field after Week 6

By now,Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center it has been well documented that Week 6 of the 2024 college football season was one of the wildest weekends of the year.

And as a result of the historic upsets, the projected College Football Playoff bracket was shaken up a bit — as were the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 rankings.

With Vanderbilt knocking off then-No. 2 Alabama in the biggest upset of the weekend (and season), the Crimson Tide saw a significant drop in the projected playoff bracket. The loss came one week after Kalen DeBoer's squad picked up a statement win against Georgia, a win that made Alabama a contender for the No. 1 spot, right behind Texas.

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However, due to Alabama's loss to Vanderbilt, Steve Sarkisian's Longhorns are the clear No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, even after they were on a bye.

One team that played in Week 6 that avoided any hit to its playoff odds and seeding was No. 2 Ohio State, as Ryan Day's squad dominated the second half against Iowa to stay undefeated on the season at 5-0. The Buckeyes have a big challenge this week when they travel out to No. 3 Oregon.

With that, here's what you need to know about who would make the 12-team College Football Playoff if the season ended today after Week 6's results:

College Football Playoff predictions after Week 6

Seedings are based on this week's US LBM Coaches Poll and rules of the College Football Playoff format:

1. Texas*
2. Ohio State*
3. Miami*
4. Iowa State*
5. Oregon
6. Georgia
7. Penn State
8. Alabama
9. Ole Miss
10. Tennessee
11. LSU
12. Boise State

* Receives first-round bye

As it stands now, the four highest-ranked conference champions who would receive a first-round bye are No. 1 Texas (ranked No. 1 in Coaches Poll), No. 2 Ohio State (No. 2), No. 3 Miami (No. 6) and No. 4 Iowa State (No. 13), which stayed ahead of BYU, Utah and Kansas State in this week's poll.

With UNLV falling to Syracuse at home this week, Boise State of the Mountain West Conference took over the automatic bid for the Group of Five as the fifth highest-rated conference champion. While Notre Dame is ranked higher than Boise State in this week's Coaches Poll and is also considered a "Group of Five" program, the Irish cannot be considered as the last automatic bid as they are independent.

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Projected CFP bracket after Week 6

For the first time in the history of the College Football Playoff, first-round games of the playoff will take place on the campus of the higher-seeded at-large teams. Using this week's US LBM Coaches Poll, here's how the first-round games would play out if the season ended today:

• No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Boise State
• No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 LSU
• No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Tennessee
• No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Ole Miss.

From there, No. 1 Texas would play the winner of Alabama-Ole Miss, No. 2 Ohio State would play the winner of Penn State-Tennessee, No. 3 Miami would play the winner of Georgia-LSU and No. 4 Iowa State would play the winner of Oregon-Boise State in the New York Six Bowls, i.e. the quarterfinals.

The remainder of the CFP would play out the same as it did from 2014 through 2023: with two semifinal games determining the national championship participants.

College Football Playoff dates, schedule

Here are the full dates for the 2025 College Football Playoff:

• First round: Friday, Dec. 20-Saturday, Dec. 21
• Quarterfinals: Tuesday, Dec. 31-Wednesday, Jan. 1
• Semifinals: Thursday, Jan. 9-Friday, Jan. 10
• National championship: Monday, Jan. 20